● Investment verdict
Do not buy the rebound before seeing the fiscal-2027 bridge.
Analyst judgmentAtlassian is a credible growth company at a newly reasonable multiple, but not yet a clean growth investment. The central decision hinge is whether Cloud and subscription annual recurring revenue can stay near 20% growth while Data Center revenue turns negative, without requiring another large stock-compensation subsidy.
Why now: the shares are down about 52% over one year, yet they have rebounded about 31% since the day before fiscal Q3 results. Expectations are no longer euphoric, but the market has already started paying for a cleaner outcome.[S6]
What changes the view: move toward ownership only if fiscal-2027 guidance shows subscription annual recurring revenue near 20%, Cloud growth at least in the low-20s, positive U.S. generally accepted accounting principles operating margin, and diluted shares still falling. Step back if the revenue slowdown is not mostly Data Center timing or if Cloud falls below 20%.
Current price
$92.00
July 13 intraday market data
Market value
$24.0B
Price × 261.2M diluted shares
FY27 revenue growth
14.3%
Consensus; transition trough
FY27 adjusted P/E
14.8×
Low, but excludes stock compensation
The decision hinge
Accounting valley or demand warning?
Management says fiscal-2027 Data Center revenue will be negative because fiscal 2026 pulled term-license revenue forward, while total revenue should reaccelerate in fiscal 2028. The market needs proof that recurring demand remains healthy underneath that bridge.[S4]
Must be true
Cloud ≥22%
The core engine cannot decelerate with the headline.
Best proof
Subscription ARR
A cleaner signal than reported Data Center revenue.
Falsifier
Cloud <20%
Would imply more than revenue-recognition noise.
Next catalyst
August guide
Fiscal Q4 results and first fiscal-2027 outlook.
Fundamentals snapshot
Trailing revenue
$6.19B
Four quarters through March 2026
Q3 revenue growth
31.7%
Includes about $50M Data Center pull-forward
Trailing free cash flow
$1.20B
19.5% margin; severance reduced Q3 cash
Trailing stock compensation
$1.56B
About 25% of revenue
Q3 operating margin
−3%
34% on company-adjusted basis
Cash / debt
$1.14B / $0.99B
$0.25B operating lease liabilities
Enterprise value / FY27 sales
3.3×
Model-derived at current price
Cloud customers >$10K ARR
55,913
+10% year over year
3.5
out of 5
Watchlist · attractive for deeper work
Competitive position4.0 / 5
Governance / capital allocation2.5 / 5
What the company does
A work system moving from developer tools to the whole enterprise
Atlassian sells subscription software that organizes work, knowledge, service requests, goals, and software delivery. Jira remains the workflow anchor; Confluence stores knowledge; Loom captures video context; Rovo adds search and agents; Collections package those products for broader use cases. The model starts with low-friction adoption, then expands by seats, higher product editions, additional Collections, and now artificial-intelligence usage.
Core system
Teamwork Collection
Jira, Confluence, Loom, and Rovo for business and technology teams. More than 1,000 customers and one million paid seats; Collection customers use about twice the artificial-intelligence credits of comparable standalone customers.[S4]
Fastest scaled wedge
Service Collection
Service management, assets, customer service, and Rovo. More than $1 billion in annual recurring revenue, growing over 30%, with 65,000+ customers. This is the clearest direct challenge to ServiceNow.[S2]
Artificial intelligence layer
Rovo + Teamwork Graph
Search, chat, agents, orchestration, and connected company context. Management reports more than five million monthly active users and 20% monthly credit-usage growth. These are company claims, not independently verified unit economics.[S4]
Developer expansion
Software + DX
Jira, Bitbucket, Compass, Rovo Dev, and acquired engineering intelligence. This deepens Atlassian’s developer position, but the $720 million DX purchase still needs a disclosed return bridge.[S3]
Option value
Strategy, Product, Browser
Planning, product discovery, enterprise strategy, and the Dia/Arc browser. The $488 million Browser Company purchase expands the vision but adds integration, retention-stock, and capital-allocation risk before material revenue proof.[S3]
Business model strength
Verified factMore than 90% of fiscal Q3 revenue came from customer accounts that already existed before the quarter. Expansion through seats and price drove subscription growth.[S3]
Customer and geography mix
Atlassian serves more than 350,000 customers. Fiscal Q3 revenue was 48% Americas, 43% Europe/Middle East/Africa, and 10% Asia Pacific.[S3]
Currency conversion note: Atlassian’s source currency and report currency are both United States dollars, so no exchange rate or conversion is required.
Model evolution
The company is layering enterprise sellers onto product-led adoption. The investor forum showed quota-carrying representatives rising from 117 in fiscal 2022 to roughly 400 in fiscal 2026, increasing enterprise reach and execution cost.[S4]
Good growth investment: yes if
- Cloud sustains low-to-mid-20s growth through fiscal 2027.
- Collections convert Rovo use into durable revenue, not just bundled consumption.
- Positive reported operating profit and falling diluted shares become normal.
No if
- Cloud growth follows the headline below 20%.
- Artificial-intelligence infrastructure costs absorb the gross-margin gains.
- Repurchases only mask ongoing 20%+ stock compensation as a share of revenue.
Watch next
- Fiscal-2027 subscription annual recurring revenue guide.
- Magnitude of negative Data Center revenue growth.
- Cloud net retention, Collection cross-sell, and Rovo paid overage.
Market fit
Artificial intelligence fits the story; the transition dominates the stock
Why the company fits the current market
Atlassian owns a permissions-aware graph of work, knowledge, people, and code. That context can make agents more useful than a generic chatbot and gives Jira a plausible role as the orchestration layer for human and agent work. Rovo is embedded into existing subscriptions, while higher Collections, credit overages, and future flexible commitments create monetization paths.[S4]
Analyst judgmentThe fit is strong, but management’s strongest proof points are usage and correlation: Rovo users grow annual recurring revenue about twice as fast as non-users. That does not prove Rovo caused the expansion or that inference costs produce attractive incremental margins.
What the price is saying
The stock moved from about $192 one year ago to $92 now. It bottomed near $56 over the period, then rallied after fiscal Q3 and the investor forum. At 3.3× fiscal-2027 revenue, the market is pricing a sizable transition discount but not a collapse.[S6]
Consensus expects fiscal-2027 revenue growth to slow to 14.3%, then reaccelerate to 16.1% in fiscal 2028. That broadly matches management’s shape, leaving the main debate around the depth of the trough and the quality of earnings.[S5]
Selected TEAM price path
United States dollars; selected dates over the last year, not a complete daily series.
Accessible price data
| Date | Price | Context |
|---|
| Jul. 14, 2025 | $191.61 | Start of available one-year history |
| Dec. 31, 2025 | $162.14 | Calendar year-end |
| Mar. 31, 2026 | $68.25 | Fiscal Q3 period-end |
| Apr. 30, 2026 | $68.59 | Fiscal Q3 results day |
| May 6, 2026 | $88.80 | Investor forum |
| Jul. 13, 2026 | $92.00 | Report market-data cut-off |
Ten-quarter growth and consensus
The near term is a step-down, not a stop
The charts use six reported quarters, the next quarter from company revenue guidance, and three further analyst-estimate quarters. Atlassian does not formally guide adjusted earnings per share, so fiscal Q4 earnings use a clearly labeled consensus proxy. Growth rates are year over year.
Revenue — six actual, one guided, three consensus quarters
United States dollars in billions. Bars show level; line shows year-over-year growth.
Accessible revenue table
| Quarter ended | Status | Revenue | YoY |
|---|
| Dec. 2024 | Actual | $1.286B | 21.4% |
| Mar. 2025 | Actual | $1.357B | 14.1% |
| Jun. 2025 | Actual | $1.384B | 22.3% |
| Sep. 2025 | Actual | $1.433B | 20.6% |
| Dec. 2025 | Actual | $1.586B | 23.3% |
| Mar. 2026 | Actual | $1.787B | 31.7% |
| Jun. 2026 | Company guide midpoint | $1.657B | 19.7% |
| Sep. 2026 | Consensus | $1.677B | 17.1% |
| Dec. 2026 | Consensus | $1.818B | 14.6% |
| Mar. 2027 | Consensus | $1.956B | 9.4% |
Adjusted earnings per share — six actual, four consensus quarters
Company-adjusted United States dollars per diluted share. No formal company earnings-per-share guide for June 2026.
Accessible earnings table
| Quarter ended | Status | Adjusted EPS | YoY |
|---|
| Dec. 2024 | Actual | $0.96 | 31.5% |
| Mar. 2025 | Actual | $0.97 | 9.0% |
| Jun. 2025 | Actual | $0.98 | 48.5% |
| Sep. 2025 | Actual | $1.04 | 35.1% |
| Dec. 2025 | Actual | $1.22 | 27.1% |
| Mar. 2026 | Actual | $1.75 | 80.4% |
| Jun. 2026 | Consensus proxy | $1.50 | 53.2% |
| Sep. 2026 | Consensus | $1.29 | 23.9% |
| Dec. 2026 | Consensus | $1.50 | 22.7% |
| Mar. 2027 | Consensus | $1.74 | −0.4% |
Growth Estimates Consensus
Three-year revenue and earnings path
Revenue consensus
Fiscal years ending June; United States dollars in billions. 30 / 29 / 23 estimates for fiscal 2026 / 2027 / 2028.
Accessible annual revenue data
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Growth |
|---|
| 2026E | $6.468B | 24.0% |
| 2027E | $7.394B | 14.3% |
| 2028E | $8.586B | 16.1% |
Adjusted earnings-per-share consensus
Fiscal years ending June; United States dollars per diluted share. 31 / 31 / 24 estimates.
Accessible annual earnings data
| Fiscal year | Adjusted EPS | Growth |
|---|
| 2026E | $5.50 | 49.6% |
| 2027E | $6.21 | 12.9% |
| 2028E | $7.30 | 17.5% |
Long-term growth expectation
ConsensusRevenue compounds at about 15.2% from fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2028. Adjusted earnings per share compounds at about 15.2% over the same period. The shape is a fiscal-2027 slowdown followed by fiscal-2028 reacceleration.
What can beat it
Faster Data Center migrations, 1.75× post-migration annual recurring revenue expansion, Collection cross-sell, Rovo overage, and Service Collection displacements could keep Cloud above 25% longer.[S4]
What can miss it
Data Center buying was pulled into fiscal 2026, migrating customers are moderating seat expansion, and the March 2027 quarterly consensus already implies single-digit total revenue growth.
Competitive comparison
A broad platform, but each front has a specialist
No peer is clean. ServiceNow is the closest comparison for Service Collection and enterprise workflows. monday.com is closer in collaborative work management but much smaller. Datadog overlaps developers and operations rather than knowledge work. The table uses a consistent Fiscal.ai market-data snapshot retrieved July 13, 2026.
| Company | Product position | 3-year revenue CAGR | Forward 2-year revenue CAGR | FCF margin | Forward EV / sales | Read-through |
|---|
Atlassian
TEAM | Work, knowledge, service, developer workflows, and agents | 22.6% | 19.1% | 19.5% | 3.4× | Cheapest scaled platform here; weakest owner-earnings quality because stock compensation is about 25% of revenue. |
ServiceNow
NOW | Enterprise service workflows and automation; closest Service Collection peer | 22.4% | 20.3% | 33.2% | 6.5× | Premium reflects stronger reported margins and enterprise sales maturity. |
Datadog
DDOG | Cloud observability, security, and developer operations; only partly comparable | 27.0% | 24.1% | 28.9% | 19.1× | Faster growth and a much higher multiple; not a direct work-management peer. |
monday.com
MNDY | Collaborative work management for business teams; smaller direct peer | 31.5% | 17.8% | 23.6% | 2.1× | Cheaper and smaller, with less enterprise breadth and less service-management exposure. |
Forward enterprise value / revenue comparison
Times revenue; Fiscal.ai normalized snapshot, except TEAM refreshed to the report price and next-four-quarter consensus.
Product advantage
Atlassian connects software development, service, knowledge, and business work with lower-friction adoption. The Teamwork Graph can create differentiated context across those domains.
Commercial disadvantage
ServiceNow has deeper enterprise-service selling and stronger reported profitability. Microsoft, Salesforce, GitHub, Google, and model vendors can distribute agents through existing enterprise contracts.
Durability test
Watch Collection attach, enterprise edition mix, customers above $10,000 in Cloud annual recurring revenue, and net retention. Product announcements matter less than sustained expansion.
Valuation and decision hinge
The multiple is modest; the cash-flow multiple is flattering
Enterprise value to revenue is the primary method because reported profitability is still distorted by restructuring and large stock compensation, while free cash flow adds stock compensation back. Adjusted earnings and free cash flow remain useful cross-checks, not clean owner-earnings measures.
EV / trailing sales
3.9×
$24.1B EV / $6.19B revenue
EV / FY27 sales
3.3×
$7.39B consensus revenue
FY27 adjusted P/E
14.8×
Excludes stock compensation
FY27 price / FCF
11.9×
Free cash flow includes stock compensation add-back
| Valuation lens | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|
| Revenue | $6.47B | $7.39B | $8.59B |
| Enterprise value / revenue | 3.7× | 3.3× | 2.8× |
| Adjusted earnings per share | $5.50 | $6.21 | $7.30 |
| Price / adjusted earnings | 16.7× | 14.8× | 12.6× |
| Free cash flow | $1.48B | $2.01B | $2.45B |
| Price / free cash flow | 16.2× | 11.9× | 9.8× |
Quality haircut required
Verified factStock compensation was $1.21 billion for the nine months through March 2026 and $408 million in fiscal Q3 alone. It explained 23 percentage points of the quarter’s 37-point gap between reported and company-adjusted operating margin.[S2]
Repurchases have more than offset recent basic-share issuance, but they used $1.44 billion in nine months while acquisitions used another $1.23 billion. Cash and investments fell from $2.94 billion at June 2025 to $1.14 billion at March 2026.[S3]
Analyst judgmentFree cash flow is real liquidity, but it is not equivalent to distributable owner earnings until stock compensation falls materially or repurchases consistently reduce diluted shares without draining the balance sheet.
Illustrative fiscal-2028 enterprise-value scenarios
Not target prices. Uses $8.586B revenue, $0.107B net debt including leases, and 261.2M diluted shares.
| Scenario | What must be true | EV / FY28 sales | Implied price | Return vs. $92 |
|---|
| Downside | Cloud falls below 20%; Data Center weakness exposes demand softness; stock compensation stays above 20% of revenue. | 2.0× | $65 | −29% |
| Base | Consensus revenue is achieved; fiscal-2028 reacceleration is modest; reported margin improves but stock compensation remains elevated. | 3.0× | $98 | +7% |
| Upside | Cloud stays mid-20s, Rovo monetizes, Service Collection keeps taking share, and diluted shares fall. | 4.0× | $131 | +43% |
AssumptionScenario returns exclude time value, taxes, dividends, future acquisitions, buybacks, and changes in net debt. They are a sensitivity range, not a price target.
Thesis and key debates
What the market may be missing — and what it may understand correctly
Bull debate 01
Data Center obscures a healthier subscription engine
Fiscal Q3 included about $50 million of term-license revenue pulled forward. Management says normalized remaining obligations would have grown above 40%, while subscription annual recurring revenue provides a cleaner view. If that holds, fiscal-2027 headline growth could understate business health.[S1]
Bear debate 01
The accounting bridge can become a demand excuse
Data Center customers are moderating seats while migrating, and fiscal Q3’s largest expiry base benefited from pricing and pull-forward. The exact fiscal-2027 revenue and annual-recurring-revenue bridge remains undisclosed. A low headline can still reflect weaker underlying activity.
Bull debate 02
Service Collection is already scaled
More than $1 billion in annual recurring revenue, growth above 30%, enterprise annual recurring revenue above 50%, and the company’s largest displacement quarter show a real second engine beyond Jira and Confluence.[S1]
Bear debate 02
Artificial intelligence proof is still a company narrative
Five million users, 20% monthly credit growth, and twice the annual recurring revenue growth among Rovo users are encouraging, but management has not disclosed paid Rovo revenue, overage margins, incremental retention, or inference cost per workload.
Bull debate 03
The valuation no longer demands perfection
At roughly 3.3× fiscal-2027 sales and 14.8× adjusted earnings, TEAM trades below ServiceNow despite comparable historical revenue growth. If reported margins normalize, rerating does not require a return to past premium multiples.
Bear debate 03
Adjusted economics flatter the owner
Quarterly stock compensation was 23% of revenue, and the nine-month reported operating margin was negative 4% versus positive 28% company-adjusted. Repurchases can shrink shares, but they consume cash that adjusted earnings ignore.[S3]
Risks and disconfirmers
Thesis-specific failure modes
| Risk | Downside mechanism | Evidence now | Disconfirming threshold |
|---|
| Data Center cliff | Fiscal-2026 pull-forward leaves a deeper fiscal-2027 hole and customer migrations take longer. | Management explicitly expects negative Data Center revenue growth in fiscal 2027. | Subscription annual recurring revenue below 18% or Cloud below 20%. |
| Stock compensation | Adjusted earnings and free cash flow overstate owner economics; buybacks consume cash just to prevent dilution. | About 25% of trailing revenue; $2.7B unrecognized restricted-stock compensation at March 31. | Stock compensation remains above 20% of revenue in fiscal 2028 or diluted shares rise. |
| Artificial-intelligence monetization | Bundled Rovo use raises hosting costs faster than Collections and overages raise revenue. | Usage is strong; direct net revenue and contribution margin are undisclosed. | Cloud gross margin falls while paid overage remains immaterial. |
| Enterprise execution | Sales investment raises cost without displacing incumbents or expanding business-team seats. | Quota-carrying sales staff roughly tripled since fiscal 2022; largest displacement quarter is a company claim. | Customers above $10K Cloud annual recurring revenue grow below 8% for two quarters. |
| Acquisition returns | DX and Browser Company consume cash and add retention stock before producing cross-sell. | $1.21B combined purchase price plus large employee equity and deferred compensation. | No disclosed revenue or Collection-attach contribution by fiscal 2028. |
| Founder control | Outside shareholders have limited influence over capital allocation and governance. | Class B holders controlled about 85% of voting power at March 31, 2026.[S3] | No near-term operational threshold; apply a persistent governance discount. |
Catalysts and monitoring
The next quarter should resolve the main ambiguity
Upcoming catalysts
August 2026
Fiscal Q4 results and fiscal-2027 guide
Key numbers: Cloud growth, negative Data Center growth, subscription annual recurring revenue, reported operating margin, and share count.
Fiscal 2027
Rovo pricing broadens
Watch usage-based overage and the planned flexible commitment model. Revenue proof matters more than user count.
Fiscal 2027–2028
Data Center migration cohorts mature
Test the company’s 1.75× annual-recurring-revenue expansion claim three years after migration.
Fiscal 2028
Headline revenue reacceleration
This is management’s stated inflection year. Failure to reaccelerate would invalidate the transition thesis.
Quarterly monitoring dashboard
| Measure | Green | Yellow | Red |
|---|
| Cloud revenue growth | ≥24% | 20–24% | <20% |
| Subscription ARR growth | ≥20% | 17–20% | <17% |
| Reported operating margin | ≥5% | 0–5% | <0% |
| Stock compensation / revenue | <20% | 20–23% | >23% |
| Diluted share growth | <0% | 0–1% | >1% |
| Customers >$10K Cloud ARR | ≥10% | 8–10% | <8% |
| Service Collection ARR growth | ≥30% | 25–30% | <25% |
Evidence, assumptions, and open work
Source register
- Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings-call transcriptFiscal.ai/Quartr, April 30, 2026. Transcript text and metadata downloaded and checked. Tier 3 · management commentary
- Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings releaseRevenue, margins, free cash flow, share count, segment revenue, and fiscal Q4 guidance. Tier 3 · company release filed with the SEC
- Form 10-Q for March 31, 2026Financial statements, stock compensation, acquisitions, restructuring, repurchases, customer metrics, debt, leases, and governance. Tier 2 · regulatory filing
- Fiscal 2026 Investor Forum presentationMay 6, 2026. Strategy, Rovo use, Collections, enterprise editions, migration economics, fiscal-2027 Data Center shape, and sales-force scale. PDF extracted and key slides visually inspected. Tier 3 · company presentation
- Fiscal.ai normalized financials and estimatesLocal wrapper retrieved July 13, 2026. Quarterly statements, ratios, revenue/earnings/free-cash-flow estimates, and peer snapshots. Tier 5 · market data and consensus
- Yahoo Finance chart feedPrice history and $92.00 intraday price at July 13, 2026, 11:23:54 BRT. Tier 5 · market data
- Fiscal Q3 shareholder letterOperating metrics, Rovo and Collection claims, customer examples, and guidance context. Tier 3 · company claim
- Atlassian Investor RelationsEvent index and earnings materials cross-check. Tier 3 · company source
Earnings materials package status
- Transcript: checked in full from Fiscal.ai/Quartr download.
- Presentation slides: no separate fiscal Q3 earnings slide deck was available in the Fiscal.ai event package; the 25-page report PDF was the shareholder letter.
- Report PDF: downloaded, text-extracted, and checked; title confirmed as “TEAM Q3 2026 Shareholder Letter.”
- Earnings release: checked through SEC Exhibit 99.1.
- Quarterly report: checked through the filed Form 10-Q.
- Newer investor presentation: May 6 forum PDF checked, with key Rovo, pricing, Data Center, and sales slides rendered and visually inspected.
Source conflicts and limitations
- Conflict: Fiscal.ai’s normalized quarterly “operating income” differs from SEC reported operating income because unusual items are treated differently. This report uses SEC reported and company-reconciled figures.
- Conflict: live market-cap providers use different share counts. This report uses the $92.00 price and 261.2 million non-GAAP diluted shares from fiscal Q3.
- Limitation: Rovo annual-recurring-revenue growth is correlation among users, not proof of causation.
- Limitation: consensus numbers can change quickly before the fiscal Q4 report.
Major assumptions
- All figures are United States dollars; Atlassian reports in United States dollars, so no exchange-rate conversion is required.
- Valuation uses 261.2M diluted shares, $0.99B debt, $0.25B leases, and $1.14B cash.
- Scenario net debt and diluted shares remain constant through fiscal 2028.
- Consensus estimates are current as retrieved July 13, 2026.
Open evidence requests
- Fiscal-2027 subscription annual-recurring-revenue and Data Center bridge.
- Rovo paid revenue, overage mix, inference cost, and contribution margin.
- Collection cohort retention and cross-sell by customer size.
- DX and Browser Company revenue, retention cost, and return targets.
- Three-year diluted-share and repurchase plan.
Next model work
- Build Cloud, Data Center, and Marketplace quarterly revenue through fiscal 2029.
- Reconcile reported operating profit, stock compensation, and true owner earnings.
- Value Service Collection and core work-management separately.
- Refresh the report immediately after fiscal-2027 guidance.
Final underwriting status: Watchlist — attractive for deeper work, not ownership-ready. Evidence confidence: Medium-high for reported financials and current valuation; medium for the fiscal-2027 bridge; low-to-medium for Rovo unit economics. Unresolved conflict: whether fiscal-2027 deceleration is predominantly accounting timing or also underlying demand. Data cut-off: July 13, 2026, with financial statements through March 31, 2026 and market data at 11:23:54 BRT. This research is for personal analysis and is not investment advice.